2010年 1月 25日 月曜日

JALの経営破綻。原因はいろいろ言われていますが、僕は2つあると思います。

1.人件費関連(年金含む)コストが高すぎた
2.時代及びニーズの変化に対応できなかった

1と2が大きな主因となって、経営破綻となったのだろうと勝手に解釈しているのですが、、、
このことって、そっくりそのまま現在の日本に当てはまるのではないかなぁと思ってしまったわけです。

1.人件費関連が高すぎ

グローバル化が進む中で、他国との人件費の格差が重しになっていたり、
社会保障関連のコストなども負担が大きく、企業の国際競争力を減らしてはいないか。

2.時代及びニーズの変化に対応できなかった

10年~20年前に立てた計画をそのまま強引に推し進めている。
しかも、超楽天的に考えた成長前提の計画。

1990年当時の税収が60兆で、過去最高。
計画立てた当初はずっーと成長してて、その成長がまさか止まるとは、
まさかここまで落ちるとは思ってもみてない。それはしょうがない。想定以上だから。

ちなみに、今年の税収36兆は、1980年と同じぐらいだったと記憶しています。
30年前と同じって(^_^;) ショッキングな数字です。

今後、人口でいっても、2050年に1億人を切る。
2100年にはなんと今のままでは、3500万人の可能性も。

そんな状況の中、コスト見直し(社会コスト)は必須。
全てが成長前提の中計画されたものは、変更するしかない。既得権益とかいってる場合じゃない。
今、最後の改革ができるかどうかの岐路に立たされている気がします。

これを逃したら、もうハイパーインフレとか、貯金全没収とか
そういう国家破綻によるリセットしかないんじゃないかと思います。
経済大国日本の場合は、助けることができる国力あるところはありませんしね。。。

現時点でこの国の未来は決して明るくない。
それを明るいものに変えるビジョンを国民は心待ちにしているのに、政治ときたら…
まあ、変化に強いのが日本国民の最大の武器ですから、リセットしても日本の強さは
変わらないとは思います。日本の最大の武器は人材!資源はないけど人材の宝庫!

我々は正しく全うに変化に対応しながら、前を見て、今を生きるしかないのだ~!!!


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